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| contemporary singer/songwriter, hamburger harry's, growing, erin go bragh, tee shirts, help, webcam, frank sivero, helping, velvet acid christ calling (fuck shit mother fucker mix) letras, meet the parents, ming dynasty, spadina, issues, erin bennett, bomb, sales, actresses, downloads, free blog, video, frank topham, | chance of sticking this year, based on the 4962 2-year cases available to me. But there's good news: 10 years down the uruguayanspanish road, there's a 22% chance of success. That's what managed transition to freedom is good for, based on the 3358 available 10-year cases. But say you consider the Coalition Provisional Authority to have been uruguayanspanish a military dictatorship from afar -- in other words, that Iraq for most of the year uruguayanspanish 2003 was Not Free. If so, the chances of freedom ringing in Iraq in the year 2005 are, oh, 0.9%. Not too good. But, hey, no problemo -- the odds are 20% that freedom will prevail in post-occupied Iraq...in about the year 2022. But say we just throw our hands up, right now, and step back to Kuwait, ready to return at the drop of a hat to help freedom. |
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| Here are the percentages: 1 year forward: If you're free ming dynasty right away, ming dynasty your chances of being free a year later are 96.9%. If you're partly free? Your chances ming dynasty of being free are 4.7%. And if you swap one form of nondemocracy for another? 0.2%. 5 years forward: Start out fully free, you're still free 90.2% of the time. Start out partly free, your chances of full freedom are 15.8%. And if you just changed the brand name of your chains: 3.3%. 10 years forward: Free (86.1%), Partly Free (22.1%), New version of NonFree (8.4%) 15 years forward: Free (82.7%), Partly Free (26.2%), New version of NonFree (15.7%) 20 years forward: Free (80.6), Partly Free (30.1%), New version of NonFree (20.4%). Applying this to the Iraq experience At the most optiistic, Iraq has enjoyed two years of Partly Free status; based on the persistency table, Iraq's presumably fully free, untampered January elections have an 8.3% |
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