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| orange county, environmental news, art director, t shirthell.com, insulting jokes, gotham, actors, for sale, centerville, insulted, film, television shows, there goes the neighborhood, thoughts, forum, bulletinboard, jack off, | But say you consider the Coalition Provisional Authority to have been a military dictatorship from afar -- in other words, that Iraq for most of the year 2003 was Not Free. If so, the chances of freedom ringing in Iraq in the year 2005 are, oh, 0.9%. Not too t shirt good. But, hey, no problemo -- the odds are 20% that freedom will prevail in post-occupied Iraq...in about the t shirt year 2022. But say we just throw t shirt our hands up, right now, and step back to Kuwait, ready to return at the drop of a hat to help freedom. Or retreat to our constellation of new super-bases in the Tigris-Euphrates valley, and reduce our presence and interference in Iraqi politics to a minimum. There's no reason we can't reset on the fast track, and see freedom in Iraq right away. Anything else is not just bad; it's crazy, that is , if the stated objective of liberating the Iraqi people is sincere. |
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| 0.2%. 5 years forward: Start out fully free, you're still free 90.2% of the time. Start out partly free, your chances of full freedom are 15.8%. And if you just changed thoughts the brand name of your chains: 3.3%. thoughts 10 years forward: Free (86.1%), Partly Free (22.1%), New version of NonFree (8.4%) 15 years forward: Free (82.7%), Partly Free (26.2%), New version of NonFree (15.7%) 20 years forward: Free (80.6), Partly Free (30.1%), New version of NonFree (20.4%). Applying this to the Iraq experience At the most optiistic, Iraq has enjoyed two years of Partly Free status; based thoughts on the persistency table, Iraq's presumably fully free, untampered January elections have an 8.3% chance of sticking this year, based on the 4962 2-year cases available to me. But there's good news: 10 years down the road, there's a 22% chance of success. That's what managed transition to freedom is good for, based on the 3358 available 10-year cases. |
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