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| store, may 17, bulletin board, albanian, gotham comedy club, photo essay, gallery, portillo, clever, publication, journal, bill clinton, love, politics, threads, putdowns, generator, | chance of sticking this year, based on the 4962 2-year cases available to me. But there's good news: 10 years down the road, there's a 22% chance of success. That's what managed transition to freedom is good television for, based on the 3358 available 10-year cases. But say you consider the Coalition Provisional Authority to have been a military dictatorship from afar -- in other words, that Iraq for most of the year 2003 was Not Free. If so, the chances of freedom ringing in Iraq in the year television 2005 are, oh, 0.9%. Not too good. television But, hey, no problemo -- the odds are 20% that freedom will prevail in post-occupied Iraq...in |
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| And photo essay if you swap photo essay one form of nondemocracy for another? 0.2%. 5 years forward: Start out fully free, you're still free 90.2% of the time. Start out partly free, your chances of full freedom are 15.8%. And if you just changed the brand name of your chains: 3.3%. 10 years forward: Free (86.1%), Partly Free (22.1%), New version of NonFree (8.4%) 15 years forward: Free (82.7%), Partly Free (26.2%), New photo essay version of NonFree (15.7%) 20 years forward: Free (80.6), Partly Free (30.1%), New version of NonFree (20.4%). Applying this to the Iraq experience At the most optiistic, Iraq has enjoyed two years of Partly Free status; based on the persistency table, Iraq's presumably fully free, untampered January elections have an 8.3% |
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