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| white, sponsors, west, 1984, mugun, dinting, ip address, help wanted, dave dimartino, kids jokes, ha ha, | Partly Free (22.1%), New version of NonFree (8.4%) 15 years forward: Free (82.7%), Partly Free (26.2%), New version of NonFree (15.7%) 20 years forward: Free (80.6), Partly putdowns Free (30.1%), putdowns New version of NonFree (20.4%). Applying this to the Iraq experience At the most optiistic, Iraq has enjoyed two years of Partly Free status; based on the persistency putdowns table, Iraq's presumably fully free, untampered January elections have an 8.3% chance of sticking this year, based on the 4962 2-year cases available to me. But there's good news: 10 years down the road, there's a 22% chance of success. That's what managed transition to freedom is good for, based on the 3358 available 10-year cases. But say you consider the Coalition Provisional Authority to have been a military dictatorship from afar -- in other words, that Iraq for most of the year 2003 was Not Free. |
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| frequency) had mulled about in semi-freedom. In 2 of 2 instances, countries beginning in nonfree conditions (Georgia and Bosnia) had attained partial freedom. The experience of the rest of the world bears this out. The statistics are impeccable, being based on 1984 almost 5,000 country-year cases: the only way to be free, or to be made free, is to be thrown into the deep end of the 1984 pool. Here are the percentages: 1 year forward: If you're free right away, your chances of being free a year later are 96.9%. If you're partly free? Your chances of being free are 1984 4.7%. And if you swap one form of nondemocracy for another? 0.2%. 5 years forward: Start out fully free, you're still free 90.2% of the time. Start out partly free, your chances of full freedom are 15.8%. And if you just changed the brand name of your chains: 3.3%. 10 years forward: Free (86.1%), |
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